Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to more than 13.5 million barrels a day on a seven-day average, reaching roughly two-thirds of prewar levels as Saudi Arabia sharply increases shipments through Gulf terminals. The latest estimate, based on Kpler data cited by oil analyst Rory Johnston, points to a substantial recovery in physical energy flows despite continued security risks around the strategic waterway.
Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, said in a September 26 post that more than 13.5 million barrels a day were clearing the strait on a seven-day average. He said the biggest increase had come from Saudi Arabia’s renewed Gulf loadings, with Kpler data showing the recovery in shipments as producers adapt to disruptions elsewhere in the region.
The latest flow estimate follows a broader increase in Saudi crude exports. Bloomberg tanker-tracking data cited in recent reports showed Saudi crude shipments averaging about 5.28 million barrels a day during the first 23 days of September, the kingdom’s strongest pace since the Iran conflict began. Around 3.4 million barrels a day were loaded at Gulf ports, indicating that Saudi Arabia has shifted a larger share of exports back toward the Persian Gulf after previously relying more heavily on alternative routes.
Separate tracking by Tanker Trackers estimated that about 13 million barrels a day of crude was exiting the U.S. blockade line as of September 23, roughly double the volume recorded less than a month earlier. The different estimates reflect differences in methodology and measurement points, but both indicate that oil movements from the Gulf have increased materially from the sharply reduced levels seen earlier in the conflict.
The recovery is significant for global oil markets because the Strait of Hormuz normally carries a substantial share of internationally traded crude and petroleum products. Higher flows reduce the immediate volume of oil stranded in the Gulf and can ease some of the supply pressure that has kept crude prices elevated during the conflict. The improvement also comes as U.S . gasoline prices remain under pressure from elevated energy costs, extending the effects of Middle Eastern supply disruptions beyond crude markets.
Saudi Arabia’s increased use of Gulf loading facilities is particularly important because damage to its East-West pipeline has constrained an alternative route to the Red Sea. The pipeline normally allows Saudi crude to bypass Hormuz, but disruptions have encouraged the kingdom to redirect more exports through Gulf terminals. The resulting increase in Hormuz traffic has helped restore some physical supply even though the route remains considerably below normal prewar activity.
Shipping conditions, however, remain uncertain. Iranian forces reportedly intercepted 19 vessels over two days after the ships attempted to use routes that Tehran had not authorized, according to Iran’s Fars News Agency. The report did not identify the vessels, their flags or cargoes, and it did not specify whether the ships were detained. The claims could not independently establish the precise circumstances involving each vessel.
The continued risk around commercial shipping means that higher oil volumes do not necessarily indicate a return to normal operating conditions. Reuters has reported that regional producers have increasingly used ship-to-ship transfers near Oman to keep crude moving, with those operations reaching about 2.5 million barrels a day in September, up from 1.4 million barrels a day in August. Such measures have helped maintain exports but have also increased transportation costs and logistical complexity.
For oil markets, the latest data therefore point to a partial recovery rather than a full normalization of Gulf supply. Hormuz flows remain below prewar levels, while producers are relying on a combination of direct Strait transits, alternative export routes and ship-to-ship transfers to keep barrels moving. The sustainability of the Saudi export increase and the security of commercial shipping through the strait will remain important variables for global energy markets.
The shift also has implications for currencies and energy-sensitive economies. Oil-market developments have already complicated currency-market expectations, particularly for major energy exporters. As more Gulf barrels reach international buyers, the balance between recovering physical supply and continued geopolitical risk will remain central to the outlook for crude prices and energy costs.
